The Supreme Court
If Justice Alito or Thomas retires under pressure and is replaced by a younger conservative, a conservative majority is locked in for a very long time. The Senate decides who gets confirmed.
Deadline: August 10. Montana, let's not hand a Senate seat for free to the Trump-endorsed Republican.
Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead should withdraw, so independent Seth Bodnar can face Republican Kurt Alme head-to-head. This is the only matchup that is winnable.
There are three candidates in this race: Trump-endorsed Republican Kurt Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and independent Seth Bodnar. If all three stay in, Bankhead and Bodnar split the Democratic and independent vote — and Alme wins by double digits.
Head-to-head is a different story. Across an average of recent polls, Bankhead loses to Alme by about 11 points one-on-one. Bodnar is roughly tied with him.
The only scenario in which Montanans can defeat Alme is a Bankhead withdrawal before August 10.
This simulation lets you take either candidate off the ballot to see where their voters go.
Illustrative simulation built from an average of recent statewide polls (three-way and head-to-head matchups); vote transfers are estimates. Remaining share is undecided. Full toplines (PDF)
Montana voted for Trump by 20 points in 2024. Given the current level of polarization, this makes Montana a very hard state for any Democrat to win. Over the last decade, Democrats have a very poor track record of winning elections in places as red as Montana, even when they've nominated strong candidates. In Montana, the Democratic brand is very damaged, and it's the party label itself that can be a major obstacle to winning. To prevent a Republican from winning this Senate seat, the only viable path is to run someone who is not affiliated with that brand.
In head-to-head matchups against Republicans, independents consistently outrun Democrats. In 2024, Dan Osborn outperformed Kamala Harris by 14 points in Nebraska. Many other independents have performed similarly, such as Evan McMullin in Utah and Cara Mund in North Dakota.
There are a lot of tight Senate races. Senate control matters more right now than it has in a long time.
If Justice Alito or Thomas retires under pressure and is replaced by a younger conservative, a conservative majority is locked in for a very long time. The Senate decides who gets confirmed.
After this June's Trump v. Slaughter ruling, the president may fire most independent agency heads at will. With removal protections gone, Senate confirmation is the main remaining check on who runs federal agencies and sits on the federal bench.
Seth Bodnar is a West Point graduate, Army veteran, and Rhodes Scholar who served as president of the University of Montana — a job he resigned from in order to run for this seat. He qualified for the November ballot by petition.
He is backed by former Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus.
Under Montana law, a candidate can't withdraw once there are fewer than 85 days until the election. That puts the deadline at August 10.
She has publicly said she won't: “I absolutely would never consider dropping out. Over 48,000 people voted for me; zero people voted for him… I'm not going to disrespect the vote of those 48,000 Montanans because of a decision that he made.” She has also said she would only drop out “if God strikes her with a lightning bolt.”
Candidates often hold this line right up until they don't — President Biden said much the same in 2024 before withdrawing. Public positions can change when the people a candidate trusts make the case. That's why the deadline matters.
From May 14 to June 30, Bodnar raised over $1.1 million and Alme about $800,000. Bankhead reported just under $35,000 in her most recent filing. Winning a Montana Senate race on that budget is not realistic.
Probably not. The Montana Democratic party would need to change its bylaws such that it would not be required to replace a nominee who drops out, but Montana Dem party leadership have expressed willingness to do so. A group of lawyers have analyzed the Montana Democratic Party's bylaws, the Montana constitution, and other similar situations and concluded that no, they don't have to nominate one, and would likely win a lawsuit if challenged. Here's their analysis (PDF).
A three-way race will certainly result in an Alme win, and Alme opposes all of Bankhead's priorities. And Alani's voice won't vanish when her name leaves the ballot. Instead, if Bodnar wins she'll be a local hero, giving her more leverage and a better position for a future run where she has more of a chance.
It proves she ran a great primary, which is not the same thing.
First of all, a primary and a general are completely different. A primary is a small, low-turnout race decided by those faithful to each party. Only about 112,000 people voted in the Democratic primary. In November, over 600,000 Montanans will likely vote. That will be a very different, and much tougher, electorate.
Second, her campaign wasn't actually cheap: a super PAC called Progressive Vet spent roughly $3.3 million boosting her and attacking her better-funded rival, Reilly Neill. At the same time, a Republican PAC called More Jobs, Less Government spent another $1.8 million on casting Neill as a stereotypical liberal and Bankhead as a pragmatic, Trump-friendly moderate. That's Republican money shaping the Democratic primary toward their preferred nominee to face in November. As soon as the primary ended, Progressive Vet declared the general unwinnable and pulled out.
Bodnar is backed by former Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus. His campaign is staffed by veterans of Tester's team, and he's committed to codifying Roe, protecting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, ending gerrymandering, and overturning Citizens United. On the issues that matter most to Montana Democrats, he's an ally.
Not exactly. The lawsuit was filed in 2021 against the University of Montana and the Montana University System — not against Bodnar personally — by 18 women who worked at UM. The University, not Bodnar, settled it in 2024 for $350,000, with the terms sealed by the court. There was no finding of wrongdoing against Bodnar; the case never went to trial and was never certified as a class action, and the University said it settled to avoid litigation costs despite believing it would have prevailed. Some of the allegations concerned a campus culture that predated Bodnar's arrival in 2018.